Amid the chapter proceedings of crypto change FTX, the market is in a state of heightened nervousness, and Solana (SOL) particularly noticed a 7% drop in value yesterday following the unfold of rumors. FTX is scheduled to look in Delaware Chapter Court docket on Wednesday, September 13, to hunt approval for the liquidation of $3.4 billion in SOL, FTT, BTC, ETH and different crypto property.
The occasion has led to widespread considerations amongst market analysts and individuals, who speculate that the liquidation might exert important promoting strain on an already fragile market. As of January 17, FTX’s crypto holdings had been estimated to incorporate $685 million in Solana (SOL) tokens, $529 million in FTT tokens, $268 million in Bitcoin (BTC), $90 million in Ethereum (ETH), and varied different property reminiscent of Aptos, Dogecoin, Polygon, XRP, and stablecoins.
The Solana State of affairs
Solana, which represents FTX’s largest holding, skilled a pointy decline in its value yesterday. This may be largely attributed to the rumors circulating on crypto Twitter (X) suggesting a large dump of SOL by FTX. However, because it seems, this rumor lacks substance. A screenshot that surfaced on Twitter, detailing the property held by FTX debtors as of January 17, 2023, confirms that FTX is in possession of roughly 47.51 million SOL.
Nonetheless, there’s a vital detail that many appear to have ignored. The SOL tokens held by FTX debtors will not be available on the market. Opposite to the narrative introduced within the visible knowledge shared, these SOL tokens are below a lockup settlement. FTX, in collaboration with Alameda, had beforehand acquired 16% of the SOL provide straight from the Solana Basis.
This acquisition got here with strings hooked up, particularly a lockup schedule. The present stash of 47.51 million SOL, which represents 8.82% of Solana’s complete eventual provide, is certain by this settlement.
Thus, the misunderstanding that this SOL reserve is liquid and primed for a market dump is essentially flawed. The fact is that these tokens are locked and can bear a linear vesting course of spanning from 2025 to 2028. Accessing these funds prematurely isn’t an choice.
As per the phrases of the settlement, the SOL tokens will bear linear month-to-month unlocks till January 2028. Moreover, particular tranches, such because the 7.5 million SOL acquired from Solana Labs by Alameda Analysis, will solely grow to be obtainable on March 1, 2025. One other tranche of 61,853 SOL is slated for unlocking on Could 17, 2025.
In gentle of those info, any concern, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) suggesting an imminent SOL dump by FTX may be confidently labeled as misinformation.
Yesterday’s 7% drop within the Solana value could have been an overreaction by the market, which believed the rumors of an upcoming dump and offered en masse out of panic. Nonetheless, not a lot has modified within the technical chart image for SOL within the 1-day chart.
Already on August 31, SOL fell under the 50% Fibonacci retracement stage at $20.26. The makes an attempt to regain it failed within the second half of the week final week. Yesterday’s slide has now left SOL susceptible to a correction decrease to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement stage at $17.39.
A value restoration may be anticipated at this stage. An increase above the 20-day EMA, under which Solana fell in mid-August, can be an vital step for the bulls on the street to restoration. As then, a recapture of the 50% Fibonacci can be essential.
In a bearish situation, which at present appears to be like much less seemingly, SOL additionally loses the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement stage. A drop to $13.30 would then be the bears’ subsequent goal.
Featured picture from iStock, chart from TradingView.com